#6 Sink or Swim - IPCC Release
Findings of the IPCC global assessment report - a rapidly closing window to act
Hi all,
It has been hard to sit down and write this newsletter with all that is going on in Ukraine. Reading the IPCC report on top of following the terrible situation there felt like a heavy weight.
But this is a critical report that has taken years to produce and I want to reflect on what we have learnt and give the issues the attention they need. We will have time in the next few weeks and months to read it in detail and learn more.
Context
The report is a large one. It has 18 chapters and 7 cross-cutting papers. It has been finalised and approved by 270 researchers and 195 governments. It is the latest global update on climate impacts since the last assessment in 2014. Much of the coverage today will focus on the Summary for Policymakers, a short synthesis of the policy relevant findings. See this great thread below for more background on the process.
Key messages
This report puts adapting to climate risks and losses and damages from climate change at the centre of the findings. Since the last report in 2014, the science shows that climate risks are happening faster and are more severe earlier than anticipated. And these risks interact and cascade through people, places and natural systems.
We urgently need to adapt to these changes. We need to invest more money in adaptation, we need to do it more effectively and we need to watch out to avoid mistakes that makes things worse. Whatever we do to adapt, there will be some inevitable losses and damages to people and places.
If warming goes above 1.5 degrees we will hit more and more limits of what we can adapt to. Reducing greenhouse gases as fast as possible and taking swift ambitious adaptation action is essential to limit the damage.
Impacts
We are seeing widespread impacts already and combined with non-climatic factors, systems are being seriously degraded. This will impact on food production and security, local livelihoods, fragile ecosystems such as coral reefs, forests and mountain areas. It will particularly affect marginalised groups and those living in low-lying coastal areas. The report tells us 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change.
Key to all this is the message that every increment of warming matters to minimise the damage.
Initial thoughts on the lessons for adaptation
The findings on adaptation confirmed that adaptation can be successful, that it works in many contexts and can reduce risks. It is an urgent priority and an essential part of every national climate change response.
But it also showed:
as warming increases some adaptation options will become less feasible;
we need to be bolder to make adaptation choices that go beyond small shifts in current approaches;
we need to invest more money to address the huge adaptation gaps;
and we need to make adaptation even more effective. Β
Many current efforts to adapt focus on immediate and short-term impacts and this reduces the opportunity for the substantive changes that need to be made. These changes are often called transformational adaptation.
The report found limited evidence of transformative adaptation so far. A long time is needed to plan for significant changes such as moving communities or implementing nature-based solutions. We need to mobilise action in the coming decade on these types of solution. These big changes can also have many negative consequences:
I was surprised to see the prominence given to maladaptation β when adaptation efforts actually increase long-term vulnerability. The evidence on this has grown significantly since the last report and this is a really important wake up call for those involved in adaptation to make sure limited funds are invested well.
Maladaptation might look like:
Building sea walls that encourage people to live in risky places
Building infrastructure in high-risk locations that cannot be easily adjusted or moved
Investing in high-cost irrigation in areas that will have more droughts in the future.
The other dimension I had not anticipated was the increased evidence on justice, equity and inclusion and the important role these dimensions can play in enabling effective, more transformational approaches.
And this is a more hopeful lesson to finish on.
There are examples and ways forward. There are approaches that are effective. The message from the report is that adaptation cannot wait. We need to see a step change in the focus on adaptation and a step up in how adaptation is done to protect the most vulnerable communities across the world.
There is much more to digest in this comprehensive assessment and I have just scratched the surface. Much to reflect on in the coming weeks.
Thanks for reading, Susannah
Hope you can say more next time on the role of justice, equity and inclusion in relation to transformational approaches.