Hi,
Happy Friday! Thanks for reading and welcome back after a little pause to take stock of the IPCC, a busy few weeks of work and a much needed holiday.
This edition of the newsletter gives a roundup of coverage on the IPCC adaptation report and looks at early warning systems.
A recap on the IPCC cycle
The impacts, vulnerability and adaptation report released almost 2 months ago is part of the Sixth Assessment Cycle of the global scientific body - the IPCC. The cycle consists of three Working Group reports and a synthesis of those and any special reports produced in the cycle.
The synthesis report is due later in the year and that will conclude the sixth cycle. Each cycle take 5-7 years, so the seventh assessment reports will be due from 2027 onwards. The warning from each of the reports in this cycle however show that we need to take significant action to reduce emissions and respond to the impacts before then.
WG 1 summarised the physical science of the changes in the climate and was “a code red for humanity”.
WG 2 summarised the impacts of those changes and identified “a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity".
WG 3 looked at progress so far on reducing emissions and what more needs to be done. The Co-Chair Jim Skea said: “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.”
So, the message is quite clear. The time to act is now.
Five takes on WG II
There is lots still to digest in the adaptation report and many governments, researchers and policymakers have given their first takes in the past month. Here is a roundup of five initial responses to the report.
ONE: The UN Secretary General framed the coverage calling it “an atlas of human suffering”, a phrase that resonated around the world.
TWO: The Least Developed Countries Group of climate negotiators responded saying:
Our vulnerabilities are laid bare in this report. The science is telling us we are already reaching the limits of what we can adapt to at 1.1°C. At 1.5°C we know we will lose more still. The world must pursue both mitigation and adaptation at speeds and scales beyond what we have seen (Madeleine Diouf Sarr, Chair of the Least Developed Countries group).
THREE: Carbon Brief asked a group of IPCC authors for their first reactions.
Dr Ruth Morgan told them that “this report gives long overdue recognition to the importance of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge for more effective and culturally-appropriate climate adaptation.”
Dr Aditi Mukherji highlights the “effectiveness of most adaptation responses decreases drastically at global warming levels of 1.5C to 2C, showing that mitigation and adaptation efforts have to go hand in hand.”
FOUR: The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre has done an amazing roundup of the key humanitarian messages using cartoons. They point out that the report tells us that:
“Climate change is contributing to humanitarian crises”. There’s a climate change ‘fingerprint’ in the pattern of threats, such as extreme conditions that are triggering migration, hunger, and avoidable deaths.
FIVE: Many IPCC authors have also created tweet threads or written articles on key dimensions.
Dr Adelle Thomas talks about her experience as one of the very few authors from a small island developing state.
Dr Chris Trisos summarises the messages for Africa.
Dr Julia Leventon summarises her thoughts on transformation.
Dr Winston Chow talks about the role of cities in the report.
New plan for early warning systems
Following up on the IPCC report, the UN Secretary General announced a plan to ensure everyone is covered by early warning systems in the next five years.
Photo: S Fisher, Terracing in Rukum district Nepal. Nepal has early warning systems in place to warn against events such as floods and landslides.
What are early warning systems?
Early warning systems let populations know when they might be at risk of something like a flood, landslide, hurricane or extreme heat in time to do something about it.
There are a few elements to them:
systems to collect monitoring data on the potential risk such as forest fires, hurricanes, rainfall, extreme heat;
ways to communicate quickly with the people who need to take action, this can be through sirens, texting, radio alerts or local networks;
plans in place for how to respond when the warnings come.
Whilst the numbers of climate-related disasters have increased between 1970s and the 2010s, deaths from them have been decreasing. This has been attributed to the early warning systems.
What do they look like in practice?
The Global Centre on Adaptation give the example of Ahmedabad in India.
In 2010 they had only 2 days’ warning of impending extreme heat and there was little coordination between agencies to prepare.
In 2015 they had longer-range weather forecasting systems and had 7 days’ notice. They used the time to prepare communities, stock up ice packs, set up cooling spaces and promote behaviour change campaigns for the residents of the city.
How ambitious is the plan?
This effort will need to fill major gaps in coverage. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) say that:
They will put together a plan of how to do this by the next global climate negotiations in Egypt.
Thanks for reading!
Susannah
Very good to access easy-to-read updates ... thanks Dr.S!